In President Donald Trump’s tariffs scenario of 25 per cent on all Canadian imports, B.C. could see a cumulative loss of $69 billion in economic activity between 2025 and 2028. The province said real GDP is projected to potentially decline by 0.6 per cent year over year in both 2025 and 2026.
Job losses are estimated at 124,000 by 2028 with the largest declines in natural-resource sector export industries and associated manufacturing. Losses would also be felt in the transportation and retail sectors. The unemployment rate could increase to 6.7 per cent in 2025 and 7.1 per cent in 2026, and corporate profits could see an annual decline in the range of $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion.
Tariffs imposed by the United States, along with potential retaliatory measures, could impact many of the province’s key revenue streams, such as personal and corporate income taxes. Preliminary analysis indicates this could reduce annual revenues by between $1.6 billion and $2.5 billion.
This preliminary assessment, done by the Ministry of Finance, is one of many possibilities as there is considerable uncertainty about the exact nature, magnitude and timing of United States policies that may be implemented.
In the face of this uncertainty, the province is using a three-part strategy: respond, strengthen and diversify.
To respond to these tariffs, B.C. is engaged in contingency planning across government and will participate in nationally co-ordinated retaliation if and when required. B.C. will strengthen its domestic position by growing the economy to create high-paying jobs to generate the wealth needed to support people through strong public services, such as health care and education. This includes fast-tracking permitting in B.C. and reducing trade barriers between provinces. Lastly, B.C. will focus on diversifying its trade relationships, using the Asia-Pacific network to become less reliant on exports to the United States.