Institutional, commercial, and industrial (ICI) investment is projected to rise into 2029 on the strength of major project activity in every province, according to BuildForce Canada’s latest 10-year construction forecast.
“Employment demands are projected to be significant across the non-residential sector to the end of the forecast period, and particularly as investment rises to a forecast peak in 2029,” says Irwin Bess, executive director of BuildForce Canada. “Our scenario model is currently tracking nearly 800 major projects across the country with a combined value of more than $500 billion. We are also tracking a long list of further projects that have not yet reached final investment decisions and therefore have not been modeled into our forecast scenario. Any of these projects could have significant implications on investment and employment growth as and when they are approved.”
Increases are stronger in the engineering construction sector during this period with work ongoing or planned to start on major transit, utility, mining, and critical mineral projects across the country, as well as on several of the nation-building projects announced by the federal government. Further growth is forecast in the ICI sector, with significant healthcare and education projects planned or underway across the country, and projected growth in commercial building activity in later years.
In British Columbia, the outlook calls for contractions in both the residential and non-residential sectors. The former is expected to step down from its 2022 peak, with contractions expected through 2028 before demand generally stabilizes to the end of the decade.
Most affected over this period is the construction of multi-unit dwellings. In the non-residential sector, investment is projected to rise to an historic peak in 2027 as work culminates on many large-scale engineering projects, including four federal “nation-building” projects in the northern region. It slows thereafter and into 2032 as these projects conclude.
Higher interest rates, weaker population growth and uncertainty surrounding the Canada-U.S. tariff dispute were cited as reasons for activity slowdown.
