In the second quarter Housing Market Outlook (HMO), Canada Edition released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), national housing starts are predicted to slow in 2016 and 2017, while MLS sales will reflect renewed economic growth in 2016 but will slow slightly in 2017.
Annual housing starts are predicted to range from 181,300 units to 192,300 units in 2016, which will fall to a range of 172,600 units to 183,000 units in 2017.
Meanwhile, MLS sales are expected to range between 501,700 units and 525,400 units in 2016, before falling to a range of 485,500 to 508,400 units in 2017. The average MLS price is predicted to increase over the next two years, with the 2016 price falling between $474,200 and $495,800. That is expected to increase to a range of $479,300 to $501,100 in 2017.
Strong variations in housing market activity is expected across provinces. In oil-producing provinces Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, slow growth will balance increased activity in British Columbia and Ontario.
“Our forecast shows that there are important provincial variations within the Canadian housing market,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, in a press release. “Increased housing starts in Ontario and B.C. will be more than offset by declines in provinces affected by the drop in oil prices in 2016. Sales will reflect renewed economic growth in 2016 before falling back slightly in 2017.”