In the Greater Toronto Area, the average condo price fell 9.8 per cent year over year in January to $604,759, while the average townhouse price dropped 9.4 per cent to $819,543, according to the latest statistics from Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
Beyond these January figures, TRREB’s 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review report provides a broader perspective, forecasting more choice and affordability for buyers amid elevated supply levels.
This year’s report includes new Ipsos consumer polling results, insights into homebuying intentions, and TRREB’s outlook on home sales and average prices, alongside research examining housing supply, migration, and affordability pressures across the region.
2026 market outlook
For 2026, TRREB predicts 60,000 to 70,000 GTA home sales in 2026, with first-half activity mirroring 2025. Many households remain cautious about long-term mortgage payments, but improved economic prospects and consumer confidence in the second half of the year could release pent-up demand from previous years.
The average home price is projected to range from $1 million to $1.03 million, with elevated inventory giving buyers strong negotiating power, especially for condos. Prices may decline in the first half before stabilizing if buyers start moving off the sidelines and market conditions tighten.
The Ipsos Home Buyers Survey found that despite improved affordability in the homeownership market, renter households face a gap of nearly $600 per month between affordable mortgage payments and the mortgage payments required to purchase the type of home they want. This affordability gap may result in many households remaining in the rental market longer than anticipated.
“With the cost of borrowing flattening out, affordability gains in 2026 will largely be seen on the pricing front, as buyers continue to benefit from negotiating power,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer. “A boost in consumer confidence could see buyers move off the sidelines later this year, which could provide support for home prices as market conditions tighten up.”
Key factors contributing to outmigration from the GTA
The report also includes new research examining the pressures that make it increasingly difficult for young families and working-age residents to remain in the region.
Nearly one-third of workers in the Toronto region now work fully or partially from home, allowing households to move to more affordable communities without changing jobs. Younger Ontarians, in particular, cite housing affordability and work flexibility as primary reasons for planning to leave the GTA within the next five years.
Traffic congestion and strained infrastructure cost GTA drivers 118 hours annually, causing economic losses, stress, and prompting many households to seek communities with shorter, more reliable commutes.
Rising development charges—over $120,000 per low-rise unit and nearly $70,000 per high-rise—are constraining housing supply and affordability, pushing builders and buyers toward regions with lower costs.
As well, Toronto homebuyers face provincial and municipal land transfer taxes and high property, income, and sales taxes, creating one of the highest homeownership costs in Canada and incentivizing moves to lower-tax jurisdictions.
“At TRREB, we focus on actions that can make the greatest impact,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “That means pursuing innovative, future-facing solutions, including planning systems that approve building housing more efficiently, a tax environment that supports affordability, and a long-term commitment to purpose-built rental construction. These elements help create a balanced and predictable housing market, and this increases consumer confidence.”
For more insight visit, TRREB’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook
