The Canadian housing market may be poised for a modest rebound heading into 2026, with buyer confidence and a projected 3.4 per cent rise in home sales next year. REMAX Canada’s latest Housing Market Outlook follows a noticeable uptick in buyer interest this fall.
Figures from brokers, agents and local real estate boards show that home sales fell year-on-year in 19 of the 33 markets reviewed between January 1 and October 31, 2025, The downturn followed a sharp shortage of listings in 2024, however, conditions have shifted this year. Listings rose across 75.8 per cent of regions, easing pressure on buyers and contributing to a drop in average prices, with a further moderation of – 3.7 per cent expected in 2026.
A new Leger survey for REMAX Canada of 1,537 Canadians, conducted between October 24 and 26, 2025, suggests renewed interest among prospective homebuyers. One in 10 respondents said they intend to purchase a property in the next year. Half of them are first-time buyers. The poll also found that nearly a quarter of respondents would consider entering the market if interest rates were to fall by a further 0.5 to one percentage point. Those aged 18 to 35 are more hopeful, with 21 per cent feeling the economy will fare better next year.
Analysts say softer prices and signs of easing on the interest-rate front could point to gradual market improvement. “Amid looming economic clouds, Canadians are maintaining their interest in homeownership,” added Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada. “The resilience that began to emerge in the fall is anticipated to continue into 2026, with first-time buyers in particular finding creative ways to save and enter the market.”
Potential impacts of return-to-office mandates
First-time homebuyers expressed concern about a rise in return-to-office mandates. While nearly half of respondents overall do not believe this will impact their situation, respondents aged 18 to 34 and those planning to buy in the future are thinking more about how this might affect their search and 17 per cent of Canadians are concerned about such’ mandates.
“Return-to-office mandates are beginning to weigh on first-time buyers’ decisions, prompting many to reconsider not just where they want to live, but how their daily routines, commute times, and lifestyle needs will fit into an in-person work environment,” said Kottick. “Transit access is becoming an increasingly important factor for younger Canadians seeking their first home. Many are weighing commute times and workplace flexibility more carefully in their search, while sellers continue to adapt to a market that’s still finding its footing in this new reality.”
The evolving buyer
Families, new Canadians, and retirees drove a larger share of sales in 2025 compared to 2024. While 17 per cent of Canadians said they plan to purchase a home at some point, brokers are hearing that many buyers continue to watch the market closely for the right moment to make their move. Those planning to purchase their first home are more likely to be aged 18 to 34 and with kids under age 18.
Regional market outlooks
A review of local markets from January 1 to October 31, 2025, underpins the 2026 outlook. About a third of markets are expected to be balanced, with 18.2 per cent favouring sellers and 15.2 per cent favouring buyers, while the rest show mixed conditions.
Ontario
Ontario’s housing market shows a mix of buyer-friendly and balanced conditions, shaped by regional differences. Northern markets like Kenora, Sudbury, and Sault Ste. Marie remain stable with modest price growth, while mid-sized cities such as London and Kitchener-Waterloo are seeing more inventory, slower price growth, and opportunities for buyers to take advantage of lower interest rates, particularly for single-detached homes.
In the Greater Toronto Area, falling prices and rising listings are easing conditions, although affordability remains a challenge for first-time buyers. Year-over-year, GTA home prices declined 3.5 per cent, from $1,127,525 to $1,088,166. Across the province, rental pressures and limited inventory are prompting buyers to plan strategically, with technology helping streamline property searches.
Western Canada
In Vancouver, high-end prices fell 6.3 per cent year-over-year to $2,483,000, giving buyers more leverage, while entry-level homes remain in demand. Calgary and Edmonton show balanced conditions, driven by suburban single-detached homes, whereas Regina and Winnipeg still favour sellers due to low inventory and steady demand.
Across the region, single-detached homes dominate. First-time buyers seek value and convenience and move-up buyers are targeting larger homes. New construction is modest in Vancouver but stronger in mid-sized cities. Declining interest rates and favourable financing are expected to boost buyer activity in 2026.
Atlantic Canada
Steady in-migration, moderate price growth, and rising new-home construction, are contributing to more balanced conditions. Average home prices are expected to increase 3 to 5 per cent, with single- and semi-detached homes most in demand. First-time buyers are returning, prioritizing affordability and low-maintenance homes, while move-up buyers focus on larger, energy-efficient properties. Retirees are seeking downsized, accessible housing or low-maintenance condos in communities that offer healthcare access and amenities.
Sales were highest in St. John’s Metro, up 4.4 per cent year-over-year. Rising rents are prompting more renters to buy, and investor interest remains strong.
