Ontario’s HST rebate program helped push low-rise new home sales in the Greater Toronto Area over the 10-year average for a second consecutive month in May, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).
Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group, explained why the program hasn’t quite registered with condo sales. “Much of the existing product is locked into legacy pricing with higher costs; and any new high-rise projects are unlikely to be able to meet the “substantially completed” requirement of the HST rebate program,” he said.
In May, there were a total of 1,023 new home sales, up significantly from the record low of 2025 but 57 per cent below the 10-year average. Historically, total new home sales for a typical May in the GTA would be 2,353 units based on the previous 10-year average.
Condominium apartments, including units in low, medium, and high-rise buildings and stacked townhouses, accounted for 193 units sold, 89 per cent below the 10-year average. In the single-family category, which includes townhomes, there were 830 sales, marking a significant year-over-year increase and 26 per cent above the 10-year average.
Total new home remaining inventory in the GTA dipped below the 20,000 mark for the third time in 24 months with 18,763 units, including 13,138 condo units and 5,625 single-family dwellings. This represents a combined inventory level of 32 months, based on average sales for the last 12 months. There is an expectation that as sales increase, the months of inventory statistics will decrease rapidly.
“While new single-family home sales surpassed the 10-year average for a second straight month, they did slightly decrease from the sales levels we saw in April 2026 – the first month that the HST rebate program was introduced,” said Justin Sherwood, COO at BILD. This decrease is largely due to potential new homebuyers still waiting on the sidelines for clarity on how the HST rebate will be administered.
“For the high-rise sector, condominiums continue to struggle with higher existing inventory, a price floor and very low new product launches (only one new condo project has launched in 2026). In addition, the HST rebate program eligibility requirements have defined start and completion dates for new housing projects that are too tight for most new high-rise condominium projects to meet, which is likely also impacting sales. Providing clarity on these details will ensure that the momentum experienced since April continues.”
The benchmark price for new condos in May was $1,029,489, remaining at an apparent price floor. The price for new single-family homes was $1,427,543, which was down 5.2 per cent over the last 12 months. These are gross prices, not reflective of any HST rebate, in order to facilitate a like-on-like comparison with previous years. Purchasers who qualify for an HST rebate would realize additional benefit from this rebate.
