Canada’s spring housing market is slow compared to previous years, but activity is increasing, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released last week.
The average price of a home in Canada dropped 2.0 per cent year over year to $812,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the price remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.7 per cent.
“In a typical spring, Canada’s housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity – especially in our most expensive markets,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “That hesitation is being driven by uncertainty beyond our borders. The inflationary impact of America’s war with Iran is pushing energy prices higher, with ripple effects across the broader economy, while ongoing trade negotiations ahead of the CUSMA review are adding to concerns about economic stability and job security.”
That sentiment can be seen in a Bank of Canada survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, where Canadians were asked when they believe Canada–U.S. trade tensions had – or will have – the greatest impact on the economy and inflation. Half of respondents indicated that the most significant effects are still to come, while 27 per cent believe the worst has already passed.
“Three factors figure prominently in today’s sluggish market: hesitant first-time buyers, a return to sell-before-buy behaviour, and limited inventory in several key markets,” added Soper. “First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and when they pause, it ripples through every segment.
“Move-up buyers are also taking a more measured approach, often choosing to sell before committing to their next purchase; a behaviour we haven’t seen in years. In some regions, however, the issue isn’t demand – it’s supply. What’s clear is that many Canadians still intend to move.”
According to the central bank, nearly one third of Canadians said they were likely to move within the next 12 months, up from 22 per cent from a year earlier. Similarly, 20 per cent of homeowners said they were likely to sell their home within the next year, up from 14 per cent.
Regional Realities
When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.3 per cent year over year to $857,300, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.4 per cent to $577,600.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home and a condominium increased modestly by 1.0 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions.
In the first quarter, the average price of a home decreased 4.7 per in the Greater Toronto Area and 4.5 per cent in Greater Vancouver. “Because of their size, softness in British Columbia and southern Ontario has an outsized impact on national averages,” said Soper. “Meanwhile, strong demand in a much more affordable Quebec market has allowed the province’s major cities to lead in both activity and price growth.
“On the Prairies, sales have slowed somewhat, yet home values continue to rise modestly, reflecting ongoing supply constraints. Atlantic Canada’s economy has been bolstered by a surge in Newfoundland’s energy sector and a recovery in Nova Scotia’s exports. While sales volumes have moderated, low inventory and a continued stream of interprovincial migrants seeking affordability have fuelled continued, modest home price appreciation.”
Inflation Risks Resurface
With inflation currently sitting within the Bank of Canada’s target range, and unemployment ticking up in recent months (6.7 per cent in February and March), the overnight lending rate has remained on hold at 2.25 per cent since last October. However, the risk of inflation reaccelerating has brought the possibility of future rate hikes back into focus.
“With inflation pressures resurfacing, the Bank of Canada has no room to lower interest rates further – and the next move could be upward,” said Soper. “For buyers planning to enter the market this year, securing a mortgage pre-approval sooner rather than later is a prudent step, particularly as rate holds have a limited shelf life. As that reality sets in, we expect more buyers to come off the sidelines through the spring and summer months.”
Construction Funding Boost
While housing starts increased six per cent year over year in 2025, much of that growth was driven by an increase in purpose-built rental construction. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the number of rental units under construction in 2025 reached nearly double the 10-year average, with record levels reported in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax and Montreal.
Significant government investment could help re-energize both the new construction and resale markets by supporting much-needed supply and improving overall market confidence.
In March, applications opened for the First-Time Home Buyers’ GST/HST Rebate, allowing eligible buyers to recover up to 100 per cent of the federal sales tax on qualifying new construction homes, up to a maximum of $50,000.
The Ontario government has taken it a step further, agreeing to match the federal incentive by crediting the provincial portion of HST, meaning first-time buyers can save up to a total $130,000. In addition, the two governments announced the Canada–Ontario Partnership to Build, a cost-shared investment of close to $9 billion over the next decade to cut development costs and boost housing development.
“The new federal-provincial government-led initiatives are a meaningful step toward getting projects moving again,” said Soper. “But we must stay focused on outcomes. Building more housing – and, critically, building the right types of homes that Canadians can grow into – is essential to the long-term health of both the housing market and the broader economy.”
Regional Disparities for Q1 2026 Condo Prices
GTA
In the first quarter of 2026, the median price of a condominium in the GTA decreased 6.5 per cent to $658,000. In Toronto, the price of a condo decreased 3.8 per cent to $660,600
Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty, said buyers are out exploring and doing their homework, but many aren’t moving aggressively with offers yet.
“The condo segment has seen a slight uptick in activity, driven largely by interest from first-time buyers and downsizers,” he said. “At the same time, inventory throughout the city has been trending downward, as many sellers are choosing to relist at a later date rather than accept lower offers. This signals a level of confidence among sellers, but it’s also contributing to a degree of gridlock, with buyers and sellers waiting for more favourable conditions to move forward.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will decrease 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
Ottawa
In Ottawa, the median price of a condominium decreased 2.6 per cent to $400,500.
Jason Ralph, broker and owner, Royal LePage Team Realty, said activity has been picking up, while inventory levels remain higher than in recent years.
“Buyers remain active, particularly at more affordable price points, but they are taking more time and approaching decisions more cautiously,” he noted. “Pricing has remained relatively stable overall, with modest recent gains since the start of the year suggesting early signs of strengthening as we move into the spring season.”
Ralph noted that conditions continue to vary across housing segments, with condos beginning to stabilize after a period of elevated supply; townhomes seeing the strongest activity; and, activity in the single-family home segment remaining steady, especially at entry-level price points where competition persists.
Greater Montreal
According to Marc Lefrançois, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Tendance, the first quarter of 2026 in the Greater Montreal Area was defined by a clear dichotomy.
“After a disappointing January with historically-low absorption rates, the market bounced back in February with double-digit growth,” he shared. “Single-family homes and plexes continue to show sustained strength, while downtown condos are struggling with an inventory surplus amplified by competition from new builds. “We are seeing a major comeback within the luxury market, while the urban condo sector lags behind.”
The median price of a condominium was flat in Q1, increasing just 0.1 per cent to $490,900.
In Montreal Centre, the median price of a condo was nearly unchanged, decreasing 0.2 per cent to $588,600. Overall sales activity was primarily driven by buyers looking to move up to a higher-end property and the end of the post-pandemic urban exodus.
“This demand is supporting the single-family home and condo segments in sought-after neighbourhoods like Villeray and Rosemont, which remain seller’s markets,” said Lefrançois.
On the other hand, the condo market has faced significant challenges, particularly in urban centres. “Condo inventory has reached record highs on the Island, making this segment stagnant; existing properties are difficult to sell due to the oversaturation of new builds in Ville-Marie or L’Île-des-Sœurs,” added Lefrançois. “We expect to see moderate price growth for houses and stagnation for condos throughout the year.”
Calgary and Edmonton
The aggregate price of a home in Calgary remained flat year over year in the first quarter of 2026, decreasing just 0.5 per cent to $689,100. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.1 per cent.
In Calgary, the median price of a condominium decreased 4.5 per cent to $257,100 in Q1.
Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark, said new listings are down for single-family housing, but the condominium and row-style segment is seeing rising inventory levels, as softer demand and increased rental availability give buyers more choice. “We continue to see multiple offers on well-priced detached homes, while the condo segment remains more balanced with greater supply,” she noted.
An increase in purpose-built rentals in the region has influenced buyer behaviour, with many taking more time to weigh their options to rent or buy. At the same time, while migration to Calgary remains prevalent, it has moderated compared to previous years, contributing to a slight decline in overall sales activity.
In Edmonton, the median price of a condominium decreased 1.9 per cent to $205,600. “Inventory has been building gradually since 2025, giving buyers more choice and contributing to more balanced market conditions,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “As a result, buyers are taking their time and being more selective, rather than feeling pressure to act quickly.”
Shearer noted that pricing has remained relatively stable overall, with modest year-over-year gains in the detached segment, though condominiums and row housing are seeing some minor softening.
“As we move into the spring market, I expect activity will continue to pick up,” he added. “While migration has slowed slightly, Edmonton’s strong economic fundamentals continue to support demand, with market activity likely to normalize into the summer months.”
Halifax
Many baby boomers are choosing to age in place rather than transition into the condo market, which is keeping inventory levels stubbornly low in Halifax, according to Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8 per cent year over year to $600,200 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 0.9 per cent to $406,000.
“Looking ahead, while we suspect a modest seasonal uptick is on the way, it is unlikely to mirror the robust spring surges we’ve grown accustomed to,” he said. “I anticipate overall activity for 2026 will be below last year.
“Despite the sluggish volume, prices have remained remarkably resilient and largely unaffected by the slowdown in activity. This is creating a difficult landscape for first-time buyers. For most new buyers, the price gap to new construction as an option remains challenging, however we hope that the new GST rebate will help make new builds a more viable option for those looking to enter the market. For now, we’re in a holding pattern, with most participants waiting for a clearer economic signal before making their next move.”
Greater Vancouver
The Greater Vancouver Area is experiencing an uptick in activity. Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty, noted the return of multiple offers and stronger foot traffic at open houses.
“Buyers are engaged and responding to well-priced, well-presented inventory,” he said. “We’re also continuing to see a higher number of ‘subject to sale’ offers, which indicates that both move-up and downsizing buyers are present in the market.”
The median price of a condominium decreased 4.8 per cent to $729,000, while In the city of Vancouver, the price of a condo declined 4.6 per cent to $780,100.
Ryalls added that a significant share of active listings in Greater Vancouver have undergone price adjustments or expired, indicating that many sellers are still working to align their pricing with current market conditions.
Winnipeg
In Winnipeg, there is a lack of inventory, particularly in the single-family detached segment, as demand outpaces supply.
“Move-up buyers are sitting on their current listings because they don’t see enough available inventory to move into, while the older generation are increasingly choosing to remain in their larger homes rather than downsizing, further restricting the turnover of properties,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate.
The median price of a condominium increased 3.7 per cent to $276,600. With the detached market being tight, other market segments have picked up steam. Sales of attached housing and duplexes are on the rise.
“While buyer preferences have evolved in recent years, many still aspire to own a detached home in the long term,” he noted. “As a result, we’re seeing some imbalance between the types of housing being added to the market and what most buyers are ultimately seeking. This continues to place upward pressure on prices in the single-family detached segment.”
His office anticipates a typical spring market where prices remain buoyant and competition stays tight. “Supply isn’t built in a day, and the bottom line for our city is that we desperately need more single-family homes to meet the clear desires of Winnipeg families and to keep the market moving.”
Regina
In Regina, the median price of a condominium increased 6.3 per cent to $232,800 in Q1. The market there is notably active yet facing a chronic inventory shortage
“New listings continue to decline, further tightening a market where the level of choice buyers enjoyed pre-COVID has essentially vanished,” said Chad Ehman, sales representative, Royal LePage Next Level. “We’re in something of a standoff right now – many would-be sellers are holding back, paralyzed by the fear that if they sell, they won’t be able to find a suitable replacement in such a crowded environment.”
Ehman noted that while construction activity has finally picked up, specifically with high-density condo and townhome projects, it is going to take time to offset the years of lagging supply that followed the pandemic.
“Driven by a lack of available inventory, competition remains fierce. Adding to this demand is surging rental prices, which are acting as a powerful catalyst for first-time buyers, who are increasingly choosing ownership over high rents,” he said. “Most of our activity is being driven by people moving from within Saskatchewan, showing that local demand is resilient regardless of broader economic jitters.
