New condo sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) declined for a fourth consecutive year amid buyer defaults and record high project cancellations. Urbanation released its 2025 Condominium Market Survey, revealing a 60 per cent drop from 2024 to 1,599 units, which marks the lowest sales level since 1991.

“As the condo market enters the fifth year of its largest ever correction, the duration of this downturn should be a significant cause for concern as it relates to future supply,” warned Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand. “By the end of the decade, we know with certainty that there won’t be any new condo completions. What we don’t know is how far into the 2030s the supply crunch will last. If rental construction can’t fill the void, this raises serious questions around the impact on affordability.”

According to the report, sales decreased 91 per cent below the 10-year average and dropped 95 per cent from 2021. Q4 activity showed no improvement as 262 units sold marked the lowest quarterly total since Q3-1990.

Developers launched only 10 new condo projects in 2025. Buyers purchased only 22 per cent of the 1,425 new units on the market, down from a 24 per cent sales rate in 2024 and a high of 81 per cent in 2021.

Sales continued to fall despite average selling prices dropping to a five-year low of $1,123 per square foot—an 18 per cent decline from 2022. New condo prices remained at a significant premium over comparable resale units. Resale condos completed in the past three years averaged $856 per square foot in Q4.

The data also shows that cancelled units continue to climb. Last year, a record-high 28 active new projects totaling 7,243 units were scrapped,more than doubling the 3,469 units cancelled in 2024.

Eight condo projects switched to purpose-built rental last year, adding to the 1,434 units converted in 2024. However, the conversion of some cancelled condo projects to purpose-rental was not enough to help offset a steep decline in condo starts. While purpose-built rental starts grew 24 per cent from 6,908 units in 2024 to 8,545 units in 2025 (a multi-decade high), condo construction starts fell 63 per cent from 8,854 units in 2024 to 3,272 units in 2025 (a multi-decade low).
In the last three years, condo starts have plunged 88 per cent, bringing the total inventory under construction down to a 10-year low of 50,479 units.

New condo sales have also pivoted away from pre-construction projects towards newly completed projects. In 2025, a record high 33 per cent share of sales were in projects in the occupancy and registration stages, surging from a 9 per cent share in 2024 and a 2 per cent share in 2023.

There also appears to be a market shift towards more end-user purchasers as buyers have better deals with more unsold homes. Pre-construction projects have typically comprised more than 70 per cent of new condo sales, however, last year they represented less than half of sales for the first time.

As of year-end 2025, completed and unsold inventory reached a record high of 3,897 units, a 131 per cent increase from a year earlier (1,690 units) and five times higher than the level from two years ago (755 units). As well, developers are dealing with completed units that were pre-sold, but the purchaser failed to close. Urbanation’s research into land registry records shows that about 10 per cent of pre-sold new condos registered in 2025 were taken back by developers, equivalent to roughly 3,000 units.

Falling sales and record-high completions have pushed unsold inventory higher during the past two years. A total of 29,291 units were completed in 2025, nearly matching the record high of 29,924 units completed in 2024 and 50 per cent higher than the 10-year average. Completions are expected to drop by 25 per cent in 2026 to 22,066 units before dropping to 14,366 units in 2027—less than half the level in 2025.

By 2029, developers are expected to deliver virtually no new condos.