Nearly 3,500 new condo units in Vancouver could remain unsold this year as completions outpace demand, according to a new spring report from rennie.
The region’s unsold condo inventory is projected to rise by more than 60 percent this year—growing from 2,179 units in completed projects to 3,493 units by the end of 2025. Growing inventory may affect pricing, delay future construction, and shift how housing meets the needs of buyers and renters.
“If the current trajectory holds, we’ll be ending 2025 with the highest level of unsold condo inventory in years,” said Ryan Berlin, head economist and VP of intelligence at rennie. “That has real implications, not just for what gets built next, but for how the region manages affordability, absorption, and future growth.”
Other key takeaways from the report revealed that:
The labour market is slowly deteriorating: Recent patterns reflect past recessions. As the senior population grows, the country is approaching a demographic tipping point. Meanwhile, despite heightened policy uncertainty, financial markets remain steady—though BC’s reliance on exports still makes it vulnerable to global volatility.
Inflation has been tamed: Inflation is cooling and the Bank of Canada has lowered its policy rate into neutral territory. Mortgage rates are following suit, yet the Canadian dollar continues to weaken relative to the U.S. dollar—thanks in part to ongoing trade disputes and widening rate differentials.
Borrowing is on the upswing led by consumer credit: With lower interest rates and rising incomes, households are spending a smaller share of earnings on debt. That said, many homeowners will face higher payments when renewing mortgages in 2025. While arrears rates are ticking up, they remain historically low.
Demographic shifts signal population decline: Canada’s largest cities—especially those reliant on temporary residents—are facing population headwinds. In Metro Vancouver, both domestic and international migration are trending negative, raising the possibility of overall population decline for the first time. Historically, the region has only seen positive domestic migration during recessionary periods.
Rental builds rise, but pre-sale market slows: Construction of purpose-built rental housing is gaining momentum, but ownership housing starts are tapering off due to sluggish pre-sale activity. Changes to REDMA now give developers more time to meet pre-sale thresholds required for financing. Still, higher interest rates, policy shifts, and investor uncertainty are contributing to elevated—and growing—unsold inventory levels.
Policy shakeups reshape the market: Canada’s immigration strategy has undergone a dramatic shift, with new targets designed to reduce population growth through 2026. Meanwhile, OSFI rule changes will allow mortgage holders up for renewal to shop lenders more freely, boosting competition. CMHC has expanded access to insured mortgages with 30-year amortizations, and BC is now offering low-cost financing on up to 40 per cent of a home’s purchase price to support first-time buyers.
