Despite declines, housing starts meet demand

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

According to Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at the Bank of Montreal, home building activity across Canada is in line with demographic demand and population trends. Although new home construction slipped in October, starts have averaged a 191,000 unit annualized pace for the first nine months of the 2014.

Based on data collected from Kavcic’s latest analysis, housing starts declined from 197,400 in September to 183,600 annualized units in October. This result was below expectations, but averages are “roughly consistent with what is needed to satisfy new households and some replacement,” says the Senior Economist in his report.

For the first time since March, Canada-wide multi-unit starts totaled less than 100,000 units, slipping to 98,700 starts. Single-family starts, however, are near two-year highs.

British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec witnessed the biggest declines in building activity. Surprisingly, Toronto has also seen a decline in housing start activity, averaging 27,900 units in the last six months, the lowest level recorded in four and a half years. Calgary, on the other hand, has averaged nearly 19,000 starts in the last half of the year, just shy of the highest levels on record.

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