Canada’s housing market remained subdued heading into the final quarter of 2026, with new data from CMHC showing continued softness in construction activity and uneven performance across major centres. Economic uncertainty, slower population growth, high borrowing costs, and modest income gains continue to weigh on demand nationwide.
The six‑month trend in housing starts was essentially flat in September, inching up 0.6% to 250,411 units. This trend measure—a six‑month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)—helps smooth monthly volatility and offers a clearer view of underlying momentum. That momentum remains weak.
Actual monthly housing starts in centres with populations of 10,000 or more fell 11% year‑over‑year, with 19,984 units recorded in September 2026 compared to 22,375 in September 2025. Year‑to‑date starts also trailed last year’s pace, down 4% to 170,964 units from January through September.
Despite this softness, the total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada rose 3% in September, reaching 248,896 units—up from 242,223 in August. The increase reflects a modest lift in multi‑unit activity in select markets, though not enough to shift the broader downward trajectory.
Construction activity remained muted. In centres with populations of 50,000 or more, the number of units under construction was flat month‑over‑month at 371,617 units. Completions slipped slightly, down 0.9% to 17,398 units. Meanwhile, units with approved building permits but not yet started rose 1.1%, reaching 143,929—an indicator of future supply that has yet to translate into active building.
“As outlined in CMHC’s latest Housing Supply Report, a key risk for Canada now is not building enough during this period of softening housing markets across the country,” said CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist, Aled ab Iorwerth. “Of Canada’s four most populous provinces, only Quebec has seen modest gains in housing starts for 2026, and each of the seven major centres covered in the HSR are behind 2025’s pace for new home construction. Canada still faces a long‑term housing supply gap and unless housing construction levels increase, improvements in housing affordability since 2023 will be difficult to sustain.”
Among the country’s three largest CMAs, Montreal posted an 8% decline in the six‑month trend, driven by lower multi‑unit starts. Vancouver saw a 6% increase, reflecting stronger multi‑unit activity, while Toronto’s trend was flat, with single‑detached and multi‑unit starts offsetting one another.
