Canadians were four times more likely to be within range of a wildfire or severe flooding threat in 2024 than in 2010, a new study shows. Researchers with the economic and sociopolitical policy advisory, Signal49 Research, also conclude that residents of subsidized and other forms of affordable housing are particularly vulnerable given the location of their dwellings and shortfalls in both resilience of the stock and insurance coverage.
Those hypotheses are based on GIS data mapping that charted the overlap of areas exposed to major flooding or large wildfires in 2024 with addresses of social and affordable housing, and a scan of insurance trends and housing programs. Approximately 35 per cent of Canada’s total population lived in an area that was exposed to severe flooding or wildfire events in 2024, up from 8 per cent in 2010, while 53 per cent of social and affordable housing was within those boundaries. Notably, upwards of 85 per cent of social and affordable housing units in Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec were located in census subdivisions where those natural calamities occurred during the year.
The researchers, Taiba Jafari and Yogi Joseph, note that rising insurance premiums or private insurers’ refusal to provide coverage leaves low-income households disproportionately unprotected. Rising premiums for rental housing landlords gets passed through to rents, while any government-funded disaster financial assistance that may be available for renters is typically confined to replacement of personal household property such as essential appliances, basic furnishings and clothing.
“Our analysis of provincial and territorial disaster financial assistance programs shows that these programs do not compensate renters for lost income or damage to non essential items. They also do not cover post-disaster rent increases, loss of tenancy or the costs associated with relocating to replacement housing,” the researchers state. “Preserving long-term housing affordability will require targeted measures to address the needs of renters in post-disaster contexts.”
To date, affordable housing programs have also tended to overlook climate-related resilience. The new Build Canada Homes program is flagged as an outlier, but something to be replicated. The researchers also recommend that the federal government standardize and share climate-related data to support municipal decision-making about land use, and work with the insurance industry to address coverage gaps.
